Model vs Market
Runners where our model's win probability differs most from the de-vigged market. Sorted by gap size.
Model − Market (info only). How far our estimate sits from the market. Not a profit signal — backtests show betting these does not beat the takeout.
- ST · R5 · 1200m#10 GOOD POWER好力Model 5% vs Market 2%+3.0%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R9 · 1650m#2 GORGEOUS WIN華麗再勝Model 9% vs Market 6%+2.6%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R6 · 1650m#5 NIGHT PUROSANGUE午夜快車Model 15% vs Market 13%+2.5%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R4 · 1800m#5 YODA'S CHOICE精明選擇Model 14% vs Market 11%+2.4%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; returning from a long layoff. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R7 · 1200m#1 HONEST WITNESS可靠大師Model 15% vs Market 13%+2.2%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R9 · 1650m#6 DRAGON AIR FORCE皇龍飛將Model 14% vs Market 12%+2.0%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R3 · 1200m#1 ROBOT KNIGHT機械騎士Model 12% vs Market 10%+2.0%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R1 · 1650m#11 TURF PHOENIX戰騎飛Model 8% vs Market 6%+2.0%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R8 · 1200m#11 NOTTHESILLYONE大番薯Model 10% vs Market 8%+2.0%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; proven winner (20% career strike). Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R8 · 1200m#1 SELF IMPROVEMENT自強不息Model 8% vs Market 6%+1.8%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R4 · 1800m#1 TURIN MASCOT都靈福星Model 15% vs Market 13%+1.8%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R2 · 1650m#10 MAZING GRACE知恩圖報Model 20% vs Market 18%+1.7%Medium
Favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R5 · 1200m#5 LEADING DRAGON應龍飛影Model 12% vs Market 11%+1.7%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R2 · 1650m#11 WINNING DIAMOND鑽得勝Model 15% vs Market 14%+1.6%Medium
Racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R3 · 1200m#9 SWAGGER BRO猛將兄Model 8% vs Market 7%+1.4%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R6 · 1650m#11 KYOTO SPRING機緣燦爛Model 3% vs Market 2%+1.3%Low
Racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R3 · 1200m#2 TURBO JEFFERIES天外富天Model 3% vs Market 2%+1.2%Low
Favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R9 · 1650m#8 UNITED HUA STEED同心華駿Model 7% vs Market 6%+1.2%Low
Wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- ST · R1 · 1650m#7 SUPERB GUY巴閉佬Model 7% vs Market 6%+1.2%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.