Model vs Market
Runners where our model's win probability differs most from the de-vigged market. Sorted by gap size.
Model − Market (info only). How far our estimate sits from the market. Not a profit signal — backtests show betting these does not beat the takeout.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#2 IVY LEAGUE大學生Model 9% vs Market 6%+3.1%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R7 · 1650m#6 TRUE BROTHERS勝兄弟Model 6% vs Market 3%+2.8%Low
Racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R3 · 1800m#12 OCEAN IMPACT蜜蜜送Model 16% vs Market 14%+2.5%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#4 COPARTNER FLEET合夥飛馳Model 8% vs Market 6%+2.0%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R1 · 1650m#7 VIVA BOSS怪獸波士Model 15% vs Market 13%+1.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; in-form jockey; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#1 SKY DEEP深心星Model 13% vs Market 11%+1.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; in-form jockey; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#12 LEAN MASTER精益大師Model 10% vs Market 9%+1.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R5 · 1200m#5 POET'S REIGN文采風流Model 3% vs Market 2%+1.3%Low
Favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R8 · 1200m#5 VICTOR THE WINNER維港智能Model 21% vs Market 20%+1.3%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; in-form jockey. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#7 FREE PONY三強Model 3% vs Market 1%+1.3%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R7 · 1650m#9 CLASS大文豪Model 3% vs Market 2%+1.3%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#6 GRATIFIDE時時開心Model 12% vs Market 11%+1.1%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R9 · 1200m#9 FLYING KNIGHT逍遙騎士Model 8% vs Market 6%+1.1%Low
Proven winner (18% career strike); wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R9 · 1200m#3 HARMONY N BLESSED人和家興Model 8% vs Market 7%+1.1%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R1 · 1650m#1 EMERGING STAR摘星聲升Model 2% vs Market 1%+1.0%Low
Wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R1 · 1650m#11 TELECOM POWER電訊驕陽Model 15% vs Market 14%+1.0%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#6 I AM BACK勝利君子Model 8% vs Market 7%+1.0%Low
In-form jockey; returning from a long layoff; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R9 · 1200m#7 ENDURANCE EXPRESS駿毅快車Model 8% vs Market 7%+0.9%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#8 LUCK IS BACK金駒永騰Model 9% vs Market 8%+0.8%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#3 REAL GENTLEMAN君子Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.8%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#9 PRESTIGE RICKY瑞祺威楓Model 7% vs Market 6%+0.8%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#6 SHAMZ劍飛聲Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.8%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R5 · 1200m#4 LUCKY BID笑必勝Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.7%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R8 · 1200m#6 SING DRAGON昇瀧駒Model 3% vs Market 2%+0.7%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; proven winner (21% career strike); racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#12 STORMY KNIGHT閃電武士Model 2% vs Market 1%+0.7%Low
Wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R5 · 1200m#1 PEJIBAYE葳莉非凡Model 35% vs Market 34%+0.7%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; consistent place record; in-form jockey. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#5 VERY GRATEFUL凱皇寶Model 6% vs Market 6%+0.6%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R9 · 1200m#5 CITY GOLD BANNER國千金Model 4% vs Market 3%+0.6%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R3 · 1800m#3 VOLCANIC SPARK風火恆雲Model 3% vs Market 2%+0.6%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R5 · 1200m#6 SHOTGUN盛勢威楓Model 12% vs Market 11%+0.6%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#10 STARRY SHOW星威心得Model 3% vs Market 2%+0.6%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R3 · 1800m#7 FAST SPEED勁步速Model 2% vs Market 1%+0.6%Low
Racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R7 · 1650m#1 WINNING DRAGON又龍串鳳Model 6% vs Market 5%+0.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#9 PERFECT TRIUMPH精彩勇將Model 3% vs Market 2%+0.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; in-form jockey; wide draw to overcome. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#4 GENIUS BABY團結戰靈Model 20% vs Market 19%+0.5%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R9 · 1200m#8 MORGAN SUCCESS龍城精將Model 1% vs Market 1%+0.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R7 · 1650m#7 HAPPY TERCENTENARY喜豐年Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.5%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R8 · 1200m#1 LUCKY WITH YOU幸運有您Model 6% vs Market 6%+0.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R1 · 1650m#3 FASHION LEGEND川河型駒Model 8% vs Market 7%+0.5%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; in-form jockey; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#11 PRESTIGE SUPERIOR傲然Model 1% vs Market 0%+0.4%Low
Mid-pack profile on the form figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#2 HEALTHY HEALTHY添開心Model 5% vs Market 5%+0.4%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R4 · 1650m#12 WHOWROTETHATSONG寫我其誰Model 1% vs Market 1%+0.4%Low
Racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R3 · 1800m#5 SERANGOON八駿笑昇Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.4%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#7 DOUBLE ALPHA升升雙息Model 20% vs Market 20%+0.4%Medium
Top-tier recent speed figures; consistent place record; racing fit off a recent run. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R6 · 1200m#10 MARVEL AND GOLD神異金剛Model 2% vs Market 2%+0.4%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R5 · 1200m#9 PHOENIX LIGHT大才Model 11% vs Market 10%+0.3%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures; racing fit off a recent run; favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R1 · 1650m#6 TO INFINITY極速滿貫Model 3% vs Market 3%+0.3%Low
Top-tier recent speed figures. Roughly fair against the market.
- HV · R2 · 1200m#3 JOLLY BONUS好運多彩Model 2% vs Market 1%+0.3%Low
Favourable low draw. Roughly fair against the market.